This article concerns Bayesian inference using deep linear networks with output dimension one. In the interpolating (zero noise) regime we show that with Gaussian weight priors and MSE negative log-likelihood loss both the predictive posterior and the Bayesian model evidence can be written in closed form in terms of a class of meromorphic special functions called Meijer-G functions. These results are non-asymptotic and hold for any training dataset, network depth, and hidden layer widths, giving exact solutions to Bayesian interpolation using a deep Gaussian process with a Euclidean covariance at each layer. Through novel asymptotic expansions of Meijer-G functions, a rich new picture of the role of depth emerges. Specifically, we find that the posteriors in deep linear networks with data-independent priors are the same as in shallow networks with evidence maximizing data-dependent priors. In this sense, deep linear networks make provably optimal predictions. We also prove that, starting from data-agnostic priors, Bayesian model evidence in wide networks is only maximized at infinite depth. This gives a principled reason to prefer deeper networks (at least in the linear case). Finally, our results show that with data-agnostic priors a novel notion of effective depth given by \[\#\text{hidden layers}\times\frac{\#\text{training data}}{\text{network width}}\] determines the Bayesian posterior in wide linear networks, giving rigorous new scaling laws for generalization error.

In this paper we study the smooth strongly convex minimization problem $\min_{x}\min_y f(x,y)$. The existing optimal first-order methods require $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\max\{\kappa_x,\kappa_y\}} \log 1/\epsilon)$ of computations of both $\nabla_x f(x,y)$ and $\nabla_y f(x,y)$, where $\kappa_x$ and $\kappa_y$ are condition numbers with respect to variable blocks $x$ and $y$. We propose a new algorithm that only requires $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\kappa_x} \log 1/\epsilon)$ of computations of $\nabla_x f(x,y)$ and $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\kappa_y} \log 1/\epsilon)$ computations of $\nabla_y f(x,y)$. In some applications $\kappa_x \gg \kappa_y$, and computation of $\nabla_y f(x,y)$ is significantly cheaper than computation of $\nabla_x f(x,y)$. In this case, our algorithm substantially outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods.

We introduce a machine-learning (ML)-based weather simulator--called "GraphCast"--which outperforms the most accurate deterministic operational medium-range weather forecasting system in the world, as well as all previous ML baselines. GraphCast is an autoregressive model, based on graph neural networks and a novel high-resolution multi-scale mesh representation, which we trained on historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 reanalysis archive. It can make 10-day forecasts, at 6-hour time intervals, of five surface variables and six atmospheric variables, each at 37 vertical pressure levels, on a 0.25-degree latitude-longitude grid, which corresponds to roughly 25 x 25 kilometer resolution at the equator. Our results show GraphCast is more accurate than ECMWF's deterministic operational forecasting system, HRES, on 90.0% of the 2760 variable and lead time combinations we evaluated. GraphCast also outperforms the most accurate previous ML-based weather forecasting model on 99.2% of the 252 targets it reported. GraphCast can generate a 10-day forecast (35 gigabytes of data) in under 60 seconds on Cloud TPU v4 hardware. Unlike traditional forecasting methods, ML-based forecasting scales well with data: by training on bigger, higher quality, and more recent data, the skill of the forecasts can improve. Together these results represent a key step forward in complementing and improving weather modeling with ML, open new opportunities for fast, accurate forecasting, and help realize the promise of ML-based simulation in the physical sciences.

Bike sharing systems often suffer from poor capacity management as a result of variable demand. These bike sharing systems would benefit from models to predict demand in order to moderate the number of bikes stored at each station. In this paper, we attempt to apply a graph neural network model to predict bike demand in the New York City, Citi Bike dataset.

Recently, there has been increasing interest in synthesizing data to improve downstream text-to-SQL tasks. In this paper, we first examined the existing synthesized datasets and discovered that state-of-the-art text-to-SQL algorithms did not further improve on popular benchmarks when trained with augmented synthetic data. We observed two shortcomings: illogical synthetic SQL queries from independent column sampling and arbitrary table joins. To address these issues, we propose a novel synthesis framework that incorporates key relationships from schema, imposes strong typing, and conducts schema-distance-weighted column sampling. We also adopt an intermediate representation (IR) for the SQL-to-text task to further improve the quality of the generated natural language questions. When existing powerful semantic parsers are pre-finetuned on our high-quality synthesized data, our experiments show that these models have significant accuracy boosts on popular benchmarks, including new state-of-the-art performance on Spider.

Recent work has reported that AI classifiers trained on audio recordings can accurately predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV2) infection status. Here, we undertake a large scale study of audio-based deep learning classifiers, as part of the UK governments pandemic response. We collect and analyse a dataset of audio recordings from 67,842 individuals with linked metadata, including reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test outcomes, of whom 23,514 tested positive for SARS CoV 2. Subjects were recruited via the UK governments National Health Service Test-and-Trace programme and the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) randomised surveillance survey. In an unadjusted analysis of our dataset AI classifiers predict SARS-CoV-2 infection status with high accuracy (Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve (ROCAUC) 0.846 [0.838, 0.854]) consistent with the findings of previous studies. However, after matching on measured confounders, such as age, gender, and self reported symptoms, our classifiers performance is much weaker (ROC-AUC 0.619 [0.594, 0.644]). Upon quantifying the utility of audio based classifiers in practical settings, we find them to be outperformed by simple predictive scores based on user reported symptoms.

Autonomous driving is an exciting new industry, posing important research questions. Within the perception module, 3D human pose estimation is an emerging technology, which can enable the autonomous vehicle to perceive and understand the subtle and complex behaviors of pedestrians. While hardware systems and sensors have dramatically improved over the decades -- with cars potentially boasting complex LiDAR and vision systems and with a growing expansion of the available body of dedicated datasets for this newly available information -- not much work has been done to harness these novel signals for the core problem of 3D human pose estimation. Our method, which we coin HUM3DIL (HUMan 3D from Images and LiDAR), efficiently makes use of these complementary signals, in a semi-supervised fashion and outperforms existing methods with a large margin. It is a fast and compact model for onboard deployment. Specifically, we embed LiDAR points into pixel-aligned multi-modal features, which we pass through a sequence of Transformer refinement stages. Quantitative experiments on the Waymo Open Dataset support these claims, where we achieve state-of-the-art results on the task of 3D pose estimation.

Everting, soft growing vine robots benefit from reduced friction with their environment, which allows them to navigate challenging terrain. Vine robots can use air pouches attached to their sides for lateral steering. However, when all pouches are serially connected, the whole robot can only perform one constant curvature in free space. It must contact the environment to navigate through obstacles along paths with multiple turns. This work presents a multi-segment vine robot that can navigate complex paths without interacting with its environment. This is achieved by a new steering method that selectively actuates each single pouch at the tip, providing high degrees of freedom with few control inputs. A small magnetic valve connects each pouch to a pressure supply line. A motorized tip mount uses an interlocking mechanism and motorized rollers on the outer material of the vine robot. As each valve passes through the tip mount, a permanent magnet inside the tip mount opens the valve so the corresponding pouch is connected to the pressure supply line at the same moment. Novel cylindrical pneumatic artificial muscles (cPAMs) are integrated into the vine robot and inflate to a cylindrical shape for improved bending characteristics compared to other state-of-the art vine robots. The motorized tip mount controls a continuous eversion speed and enables controlled retraction. A final prototype was able to repeatably grow into different shapes and hold these shapes. We predict the path using a model that assumes a piecewise constant curvature along the outside of the multi-segment vine robot. The proposed multi-segment steering method can be extended to other soft continuum robot designs.

We analyze the problem of detecting tree rings in microscopy images of shrub cross sections. This can be regarded as a special case of the instance segmentation task with several particularities such as the concentric circular ring shape of the objects and high precision requirements due to which existing methods don't perform sufficiently well. We propose a new iterative method which we term Iterative Next Boundary Detection (INBD). It intuitively models the natural growth direction, starting from the center of the shrub cross section and detecting the next ring boundary in each iteration step. In our experiments, INBD shows superior performance to generic instance segmentation methods and is the only one with a built-in notion of chronological order. Our dataset and source code are available at http://github.com/alexander-g/INBD.

Fatigue strength estimation is a costly manual material characterization process in which state-of-the-art approaches follow a standardized experiment and analysis procedure. In this paper, we examine a modular, Machine Learning-based approach for fatigue strength estimation that is likely to reduce the number of experiments and, thus, the overall experimental costs. Despite its high potential, deployment of a new approach in a real-life lab requires more than the theoretical definition and simulation. Therefore, we study the robustness of the approach against misspecification of the prior and discretization of the specified loads. We identify its applicability and its advantageous behavior over the state-of-the-art methods, potentially reducing the number of costly experiments.